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Search results for: NUMERICAL WEATHER FORECASTING
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Assessment of Trajectories of Non-bankrupt and Bankrupt Enterprises
PublicationThe aim of this study is to show how long-term trajectories of enterprises can be used to increase the forecasting horizon of bankruptcy prediction models. The author used seven popular forecasting models (two from Europe, two from Asia, two from North America and one from Latin America). These models (five multivariate discriminant analysis models and two logit models) were used to develop 17-year trajectories separately for non-bankrupt...
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Consequences of russia’s military invasion of Ukraine for Polish-Ukrainian trade relations
PublicationAn accurate forecast of interstate trade volume allows for short-term and long-term planning, particularly deciding on state budget revenues, foreign exchange earnings, border arrangement, other infrastructure, migration and social policies. Hostilities are destructive so the russian military aggression against Ukraine in 2022 needs to be assessed in terms of its effects on key economic aspects of Polish-Ukrainian relations, as...
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A new finite element with variable Young's modulus
PublicationThe Finite Element Method (FEM) is a numerical technique that is well-established in the field of engineering. However, in biological sciences, it is justtaking its first steps. Bone tissue is an example of biological material which isexposed to high loads in its natural environment. Practically every movementof the body results in changing stress levels in the bone. Nature copes with thisvery well but when human intervention is...
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Fuel price, income and road safety as determinants of the level of the population’s economic well-being in Poland
PublicationThe opportunity to travel is one of the most favorite human activities, given that on a trip a person gets new knowledge, impressions and positive emotions. Recreational trips occupy a prominent place in the concept of the economics of happiness, and the study of factors that influence decision-making regarding travel is important for forecasting the number of tourists, infrastructure development, income and expenses of businesses...
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Evaluati on of long-term start up costs impact on short-term price based operational optimization of a CCGT using MILP
PublicationAn increasing share of the weather-dependent RES generation in the power system leads to the growing importance of flexibility of conventional power plants. They were usually designed for base load operation and it is a challenge to determine the actual long-term cycling costs, which account for an increase in maintenance and overhaul expenditures, increased forced outage rates and shortened life expectancy of the plant and components....
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A Novel Trust-Region-Based Algorithm with Flexible Jacobian Updates for Expedited Optimization of High-Frequency Structures
PublicationSimulation-driven design closure is mandatory in the design of contemporary high-frequency components. It aims at improving the selected performance figures through adjustment of the structure’s geometry (and/or material) parameters. The computational cost of this process when employing numerical optimization is often prohibitively high, which is a strong motivation for the development of more efficient methods. This is especially...
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Dataset of phase portraits of the fractional prey-predator model with Holling type-II interaction (without predator harvesting)
Open Research DataThe need for a fractional generalization of a given classical model is often due to new behaviors which cannot be taken into account by the model. In this situation, it can be useful to look for a fractional deformation of the initial system, trying to fit the fractional exponent of differentiation in order to catch properly the data.
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Wiktoria Wojnicz dr hab. inż.
PeopleDSc in Mechanics (in the field of Biomechanics) - Lodz Univeristy of Technology, 2019 PhD in Mechanics (in the field of Biomechanics) - Lodz Univeristy of Technology, 2009 (with distinction) List of papers (2009 - ) Wojnicz W., Wittbrodt E., Analysis of muscles' behaviour. Part I. The computational model of muscle. Acta of Bioengineering and Biomechanics, Vol. 11, No.4, 2009, p. 15-21 Wojnicz W., Wittbrodt E., Analysis of...
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Calibration of precipitation estimation algorithm with particular emphasis on the Pomeranian region using high performance computing
PublicationFast and accurate precipitation estimation is an important element of remote atmosphere monitoring, as it allows, for example, to correct short-term weather forecasts and the prediction of several types of meteorological threats. The paper presents methodology for calibrating precipitation estimation algorithm based on MSG SEVIRI sensor data, and Optimal Cloud Analysis product available via EumetCast transmission. Calibration is...
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How does climate change affect ice formation and presence in rivers, lakes and oceans, as well as its impact on infrastructure
PublicationIce season in rivers, lakes, seas and oceans is sensitive to climate change due to the high homologous temperature. Two vital aspects of the predicted climate change are increasing average air temperature and increasing variability in the weather. These cause delayed formation of ice, thinner ice and shorter duration of seasonal ice covers, the geographical ice margin to move further away from the equator, the perennial ice to...
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Results of the application of tropospheric corrections from different troposphere models for precise GPS rapid static positioning
PublicationIn many surveying applications, determination of accurate heights is of significant interest. The delay caused by the neutral atmosphere is one of the main factors limiting the accuracy of GPS positioning and affecting mainly the height coordinate component rather than horizontal ones. Estimation of the zenith total delay is a commonly used technique for accounting for the tropospheric delay in static positioning. However, in the...
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LONG-TERM RISK CLASS MIGRATIONS OF NON-BANKRUPT AND BANKRUPT ENTERPRISES
PublicationThis paper investigates how the process of going bankrupt can be recognized much earlier by enterprises than by traditional forecasting models. The presented studies focus on the assessment of credit risk classes and on determination of the differences in risk class migrations between non-bankrupt enterprises and future insolvent firms. For this purpose, the author has developed a model of a Kohonen artificial neural network to...
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Discrete and continuous fractional persistence problems – the positivity property and applications
PublicationIn this article, we study the continuous and discrete fractional persistence problem which looks for the persistence of properties of a given classical (α=1) differential equation in the fractional case (here using fractional Caputo’s derivatives) and the numerical scheme which are associated (here with discrete Grünwald–Letnikov derivatives). Our main concerns are positivity, order preserving ,equilibrium points and stability...
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On possible applications of media described by fractional-order models in electromagnetic cloaking
PublicationThe purpose of this paper is to open a scientific discussion on possible applications of media described by fractional-order (FO) models (FOMs) in electromagnetic cloaking. A 2-D cloak based on active sources and the surface equivalence theorem is simulated. It employs a medium described by FOM in communication with sources cancelling the scattered field. A perfect electromagnetic active cloak is thereby demonstrated with the use...
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Physicochemical and photocatalytic data of Nb-doped faceted TiO2
Open Research DataRaw numerical data, obtained from the physicochemical measurements (XRD, DR-UV/Vis, EPR) and numerical data on photocatalytic activity (phenol degradation and 4-nitrophenol reduction) extracted from the HPLC-DAD results, obtained for the TiO2 nanoparticles that expose majority of the {0 0 1}, {1 0 0} or {1 0 1} facets and were doped with the nominal...
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A modelling approach to the transport support for the harvesting and transportation complex under uncertain conditions
PublicationThe article proposes a modelling approach based on structural and parametric identification of the transport support of the harvesting and transportation complex. The efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed methods of structural and parametric identification for the development of a system for harvesting and transportation complex operation has been proved. A mathematical model based on fuzzy logic has been developed. It reflects...
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Prognozowanie ostrzegawcze w małej firmie
PublicationW artykule pokazano możliwości zastosowania prostych metod prognostycznych do ostrzegania w małej firmie przed niekorzystnymi zjawiskami. Przedmiotem badań jest sprzedaż, a ze względu na występowanie w szeregu czasowym sezonowości, w celu wyznaczenia sygnałów ostrzegawczych dokonano porównań trendów prognozowanych i rzeczywistych w okresach jednoimiennych za pomocą pierwszych różnic. Do prognozowania sprzedaży wykorzystano proste...
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Karol Flisikowski dr inż.
PeopleKarol Flisikowski works as Associate Professor at the Department of Statistics and Econometrics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Gdansk University of Technology. He is responsible for teaching descriptive and mathematical statistics (in Polish and English), as well as scientific research in the field of social statistics. He has been a participant in many national and international conferences, where he has presented the results...
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Forecasting Poland`s road deaths. W: [CD-ROM]. Zbornik referatov. V. Medna- rodna Konferenca Globalna Varnost. V. International Conference Global Safe- ty. Portoroz, od 6. do 9 oktobra 2002, Slovenija. [B.m.]: ZVD, Slovene Road Safety Council**2002 [7 s. 5 rys. bibliogr. 8 poz.] Prognozowanie liczby zabitych w ruchu drogowym w Polsce.
PublicationW referacie przedstawiono sytuację w zakresie bezpieczeństwa ruchu drogowegow Polsce oraz metodykę tworzenia długoterminowych prognoz rozwoju ryzyka w ruchu drogowym na przykładzie prognozy dla potrzeb Krajowego Programu Bez-pieczeństwa Ruchu drogowego GAMBIT 2000.
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Michał Michna dr hab. inż.
PeopleMichal Michna received the M.Sc. and Ph.D. degrees in electrical engineering from the Gdansk University of Technology (GUT), Gdansk, Poland, in 1998 and 2005, respectively. Since 2004, he was employed at the Department of Power Electronics and Electrical Machines of the Gdańsk University of Technology (assistant, assistant professor, senior lecturer). In 2010-2015 he was a deputy of head of the Department of Power Electronics and...
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Lithuania inland waterways and its prospects
PublicationInland waterways have some traditions in Lithuania and in neighbor Countries, but during last 50 years other modes of transport move out inland waterway transport from real economical activity. In the same time inland waterways is the main green and sustainable transport system. In this article are presented analysis situation, methodology for the ships optimal using in inland waterways, forecasting of the possible cargo and passenger...
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Parallel implementation of a Sailing Assistance Application in a Cloud Environment
PublicationSailboat weather routing is a highly complex problem in terms of both the computational time and memory. The reason for this is a large search resulting in a multitude of possible routes and a variety of user preferences. Analysing all possible routes is only feasible for small sailing regions, low-resolution maps, or sailboat movements on a grid. Therefore, various heuristic approaches are often applied, which can find solutions...
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Karol Niklas dr inż.
PeopleKarol NIKLAS is an Assistant Professor and Researcher at The Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Ship Technology, Gdansk University of Technology (GUT), Poland. Awarded a Master of Science degree (Naval Architect, specialty: Design of vessels and yachts) by GUT in 2007. Postgraduate study in 'Novel Simulation Methods in Engineering' at the Faculty of Applied Physics and Mathematics in 2008. In 2014 awarded a PhD degree by GUT...
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Mode choice modelling for urban areas
PublicationThe article presents the question of mode choice modelling in a four-stage travel modelling process. The article indicates limitations of currently used simplified methods of mode choice modelling and presents the possibility of using a more detailed approach that accounts for additional, statistically significant factors with the use of advanced mathematical tools, discrete choice models. A need has also been identified to include...
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Aleksandra Dudkowska doktor
PeopleDoctor of physical sciences, assistant professor at the Institute of Oceanography at the University of Gdańsk. Her interests focus on Sea Dynamics, in particular on the numerical modeling of water masses and sediments movement in the sea.
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SafeCity – a GIS-based tool profiled for supporting decision making in urban development and infrastructure protection
PublicationThis paper presents a system for analysis of municipal Critical Infrastructures, which offers integrated tools for target analysis, hazard scenario simulations and spatial analysis within a remotely accessible Web-based Geographic Information System. The system has been applied to research conducted in the city of Gdansk with the aid of blast attack, chemical leakage and flood hazard scenarios, as well as a spatial density algorithm,...
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ICT technologies and financial innovations: The case of exchange traded funds in Brazil, Japan, Mexico, South Korea and the United States
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An evaluation of effectiveness of fuzzy logic model in predicting the business bankruptcy
PublicationW artykule sprawdzono skuteczność pojedynczego modelu logiki rozmytej w prognozowaniu ryzyka upadłości przedsiębiorstw w Polsce. W badaniach wykorzystano wartości 14 wskaźników finansowych oraz ich dynamikę zmiany między pierwszym a drugim, drugim a trzecim oraz trzecim a czwartym rokiem objętymi analizą. We wnioskach omówiono różnicę w skutecznościach modelu uzyskanego na wartościach statycznych oraz dynamicznych wskaźników finansowych....
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Tracing financial innovation diffusion and substitution trajectories. Recent evidence on exchange-traded funds in Japan and South Korea.
PublicationSince the rapid growth of the popularity of ETFs, the potential substitution between innovative financial products, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and traditional investment funds (open-end and closed-end funds) is recognized as one of the most-discussed issues in the financial industry. This is the first study to empirically verify and compare the diffusion and substitution of ETFs using monthly data on their assets in two selected...
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Inflation Forecast or Forecast(s) Targeting?
PublicationThe paper refers to L.E.O. Svensson’s concept of inflation forecast targeting (IFT) and its implementation by central banks of Sweden, Norway and the Czech Republic. The study focuses on (1) inflation forecasts published by selected central banks, i.e.headline inflation and core or monetary policy-relevant (MPR) inflation, which are made on the assumption of endogenous instrument rate, (2) one-year consumer...
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Government in the metaverse: Requirements and suitability for providing digital public services
PublicationDigital government comprises all means to enable governments to interact with their constituents digitally. The metaverse provides a virtual reality environment where various activities can be carried out without physically visiting the places of interest, including the public authorities. Yet, how governments can use the metaverse is unknown. This paper aims to extend the understanding of the metaverse architecture requirements...
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How digital technology affects working conditions in globally fragmented production chains: Evidence from Europe
PublicationThis paper uses a sample of over 9 million workers from 22 European countries to study the intertwined relationship between digital technology, cross-border production links and working conditions. We compare the social consequences of technological change exhibited by three types of innovation: computerisation (software), automation (robots) and artificial intelligence (AI). To fully quantify work-related wellbeing, we propose...
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The potential of web awareness as a determinant of dually defined customer value
PublicationIn the conditions of increasing demand barrier, the enterprise’s basic capital is customers. From an enterprise point of view, this means the need to create a dual perceived and defined customer value which remains related to market value (income and development potential) and customer resource value (reference, information and cooperative potential). The progressing digitisation process transfers business processes, and thus relationships, into...
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Reshaping financial systems: The role of ICT in the diffusion of financial innovations – Recent evidence from European countries
PublicationExchange-traded funds (ETFs) are among the fastest-growing types of innovative financial products. The emergence and spread of these instruments have been facilitated by the digital revolution. Information and communication technology (ICT) is profoundly reshaping the global economic landscape, laying solid foundations for unrestricted and unbounded flows of information and knowledge, eliminating information asymmetries, and furthering...
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Machine learning for the management of biochar yield and properties of biomass sources for sustainable energy
PublicationBiochar is emerging as a potential solution for biomass conversion to meet the ever increasing demand for sustainable energy. Efficient management systems are needed in order to exploit fully the potential of biochar. Modern machine learning (ML) techniques, and in particular ensemble approaches and explainable AI methods, are valuable for forecasting the properties and efficiency of biochar properly. Machine-learning-based forecasts,...
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Wind speed, wind direction and solar radiation datasets; wind and solar energy resources analysis
Open Research DataDataset contain the results of wind speed, wind direction and solar radiation for wind and solar energy resources analysis performed in years 2008 and 2009. Application for efficiency and profitability of solar and wind power plants anaylsis and for energy generation forecasting algorithms design and anaysis. Datasets used in doctoral dissertations,...
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Simulations of freshwater lens recharge and salt/freshwater interfaces using the HYDRUS and SWI2 packages for MODFLOW
PublicationThe paper presents an evaluation of the combined use of the HYDRUS and SWI2 packages for MODFLOW as a potential tool for modeling recharge in coastal aquife rs subject to saltwater intrusion. The HYDRUS package for MODFLOW solves numerically the one-dimensional form of the Richards equation describing water flow in variably- saturated media. The code computes groundwater recharge to or...
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The Development of a Combined Method to Quickly Assess Ship Speed and Fuel Consumption at Different Powertrain Load and Sea Conditions
PublicationDecision support systems (DSS) recently have been increasingly in use during ships operation. They require realistic input data regarding different aspects of navigation. To address the optimal weather routing of a ship, which is one of the most promising field of DSS application, it is necessary to accurately predict an actually attainable speed of a ship and corresponding fuel consumption at given loading conditions and predicted...
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Interactive information and decision support system for urban and industrial air quality management based on multi-agent system
PublicationThis article presents conception of interactive information and decision support system for urban and industrial air quality management. The emphasis of the project is on real-time analysis and multi-media information, and the support of distributed and mobile clients through the Internet. The approach integrates meteorological data and forecasts, air quality and emission monitoring, dynamic 3D simulation modelling and forecasting,...
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Michał Ryms dr inż.
PeopleMichał Ryms, PhD, Eng. is the physicist, graduate of the Gdańsk University of Technology. PhD thesis defended at the Chemical Faculty. Since 2011 an employee at the Department of Chemical Apparatus and Theory of Machines, Chemical Faculty, Gdansk University of Technology, POLAND – now as an assistant professor. His research interests includes: improvement of energy efficiency and possibilities of new application of phase change...
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Synergistic effects of a swirl generator and MXene/ water nanofluids used in a heat exchanger pipe of a negative CO2 emission gas power plant
Publicationfocus on optimizing heat exchangers contributes to improved temperature control mechanisms, ensuring the sustainable operation of innovative power plants working towards negative CO2 emissions. In the realm of oxy-combustion within Negative CO2 Emission Power Plants (nCO2PP), the temperature of combustion products surpasses 3000 (K). Addressing this challenge, the imperative arises to reduce these elevated temperatures to a manageable...
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Revisiting The Determination Of Cutting Power While Sawing Of Wood With Circular Saw Blades By Means Of Fracture Mechanics
PublicationIn the classical approach, energetic effects (cutting forces and cutting power) of wood sawing process are generally calculated on the basis of the specific cutting resistance, which is in the case of wood cutting the function of more or less important factors. On the other hand, cutting forces (power) could be considered from a point of view of modern fracture mechanics. Cutting forces may be employed to determine not only toughness...
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Jakub Konkol dr inż.
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Numerical modelling of POC dynamics in the southern Baltic under possible future conditions determined by nutrients, light and temperature**The study was financially supported by the Polish Ministry of Science and Higher Education (grants: NN305 111636 and NN306 404338) and Baltic-C – the BONUS funded project.
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Modelling hydraulic and capillary-driven two-phase fluid flow in unsaturated concretes at the meso-scale with a unique coupled DEM-CFD technique
PublicationThe goal of the research was to demonstrate the impact of thin porous interfacial transition zones (ITZs) between aggregates and cement matrix on fluid flow in unsaturated concrete caused by hydraulic/capillary pressure. To demonstrate this impact, a novel coupled approach to simulate the two-phase (water and moist air) flow of hydraulically and capillary-driven fluid in unsaturated concrete was developed. By merging the discrete...
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The methodology for determining of the value of cutting power for cross cutting on optimizing sawing machine
PublicationIn the article the methodology of forecasting the energy effects of the cross-cutting process using the classical method, which takes into account the specific cutting resistance, is presented. The values of cutting power for the cross-cutting process of two types of wood (softwood and hardwood) were forecasted for the optimizing sawing machine with using presented methodology. The cross-cutting process with high values of feed...
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Application of road map of operating condition for estimation of fuel and electric energy consumption from city transport
PublicationThe paper presents procedure of data collecting and generation of road map of operating condition in the selected urban area. This map allows forecasting the selected vehicle operating parameters for the assumed road. The main parameters calculated using the road maps of operating conditions are: total energy spent to drive the selected vehicle, consumed fuel, travel time, average speed of travel, CO2 emissions. Presented example...
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Ewa Klugmann-Radziemska prof. dr hab.
PeopleEwa Klugmann-Radziemska graduated from the University of Gdansk with a degree in physics, and since 1996 has been associated with the Gdansk University of Technology, when she began PhD studies. Currently, he is a professor at the Faculty of Chemistry at the Gdansk University of Technology, since 2006 head of the Department of Chemical Apparatus and Machinery. In the years 2008–2016 she was the Vice-Dean for cooperation and development,...
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Analiza ruchu drogowego z wykorzystaniem analizy akustycznej
PublicationTematyka pracy porusza zagadnienia dotyczące pozyskiwania informacji o ruchu drogowym z wykorzystaniem monitoringu akustycznego. Przybliżono podstawowe techniki nadzoru nad ruchem drogowym. Przedstawiono założenia akustycznego detektora ruchu i zbadano jego skuteczność na trzech płaszczyznach działania – zliczania pojazdów, klasyfikacji rodzajowej i klasyfikacji warunków pogodowych panujących na nawierzchni
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Geotechnics
e-Learning CoursesThe course is divided into two parts. The first is related to in-situ tests and their applications for the design of shallow and deep foundations. The second part is related to models of soil behavior and numerical analysis in geotechnical engineering.