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Search results for: FINAL PREDICTION ERROR
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Akaike's final prediction error criterion revisited
PublicationWhen local identification of a nonstationary ARX system is carried out, two important decisions must be taken. First, one should decide upon the number of estimated parameters, i.e., on the model order. Second, one should choose the appropriate estimation bandwidth, related to the (effective) number of input-output data samples that will be used for identification/ tracking purposes. Failure to make the right decisions results...
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On Noncausal Identification of Nonstationary Multivariate Autoregressive Processes
PublicationThe problem of identification of nonstationary multivariate autoregressive processes using noncausal local estimation schemes is considered and a new approach to joint selection of the model order and the estimation bandwidth is proposed. The new selection rule, based on evaluation of pseudoprediction errors, is compared with the previously proposed one, based on the modified Akaike’s final prediction error criterion.
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On autoregressive spectrum estimation using the model averaging technique
PublicationThe problem of estimating spectral density of a nonstationary process satisfying local stationarity conditions is considered. The proposed solution is a two step procedure based on local autoregressive (AR) modeling. In the first step Bayesian-like averaging of AR models, differing in order, is performed. The main contribution of the paper is development of a new final-prediction-error-like statistic, which can be used to select...
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New results on estimation bandwidth adaptation
PublicationThe problem of identification of a nonstationary autoregressive signal using non-causal estimation schemes is considered. Noncausal estimators can be used in applications that are not time-critical, i.e., do not require real-time processing. A new adaptive estimation bandwidth selection rule based on evaluation of pseudoprediction errors is proposed, allowing one to adjust tracking characteristics of noncausal estimators to unknown...
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Lattice filter based autoregressive spectrum estimation with joint model order and estimation bandwidth adaptation
PublicationThe problem of parametric, autoregressive model based estimation of a time-varying spectral density function of a nonstationary process is considered. It is shown that estimation results can be considerably improved if identification of the autoregressive model is carried out using the two-sided doubly exponentially weighted lattice algorithm which combines results yielded by two one-sided lattice algorithms running forward in...
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Lattice filter based multivariate autoregressive spectral estimation with joint model order and estimation bandwidth adaptation
PublicationThe problem of parametric, autoregressive model based estimation of a time-varying spectral density function of a multivariate nonstationary process is considered. It is shown that estimation results can be considerably improved if identification of the autoregressive model is carried out using the two-sided doubly exponentially weighted lattice algorithm which combines results yielded by two one-sided lattice algorithms running...
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On joint order and bandwidth selection for identification of nonstationary autoregressive processes
PublicationWhen identifying a nonstationary autoregressive process, e.g. for the purpose of signal prediction or parametric spectrum estimation, two important decisions must be taken. First, one should choose the appropriate order of the autoregressive model, i.e., the number of autoregressive coefficients that will be estimated. Second, if identification is carried out using the local estimation technique, such as the localized version of...
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Identification of nonstationary multivariate autoregressive processes– Comparison of competitive and collaborative strategies for joint selection of estimation bandwidth and model order
PublicationThe problem of identification of multivariate autoregressive processes (systems or signals) with unknown and possibly time-varying model order and time-varying rate of parameter variation is considered and solved using parallel estimation approach. Under this approach, several local estimation algorithms, with different order and bandwidth settings, are run simultaneously and compared based on their predictive performance. First,...
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Closer Look at the Uncertainty Estimation in Semantic Segmentation under Distributional Shift
PublicationWhile recent computer vision algorithms achieve impressive performance on many benchmarks, they lack robustness - presented with an image from a different distribution, (e.g. weather or lighting conditions not considered during training), they may produce an erroneous prediction. Therefore, it is desired that such a model will be able to reliably predict its confidence measure. In this work, uncertainty estimation for the task...
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On adaptive covariance and spectrum estimation of locally stationary multivariate processes
PublicationWhen estimating the correlation/spectral structure of a locally stationary process, one has to make two important decisions. First, one should choose the so-called estimation bandwidth, inversely proportional to the effective width of the local analysis window, in the way that complies with the degree of signal nonstationarity. Too small bandwidth may result in an excessive estimation bias, while too large bandwidth may cause excessive...
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RECSYS CHALLENGE 2015: a BUY EVENT PREDICTION IN THE E-COMMERCE DOMAIN
PublicationIn this paper we present our approach to RecSys Challenge 2015. Given a set of e-commerce events, the task is to predict whether a user will buy something in the current session and, if yes, which of the item will be bought. We show that the data preparation and enrichment are very important in finding the solution for the challenge and that simple ideas and intuitions could lead to satisfactory results. We also show that simple...
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Robust Parameter Estimation and Output Prediction for Reactive Carrier-Load Nonlinear Dynamic Networks
PublicationIn this paper an extension of on-line model simplification technique for a class of networked systems, namely reactive carrier-load nonlinear dynamic networked system (RCLNDNS), kept within point-parametric model (PPM) framework is addressed. The PPM is utilised to acquire a piece wise constant time-varying parameter linear structure for the RCLNDNS suitable for the on-line one step ahead prediction that may be applied to monitoring...
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Comparative study on total nitrogen prediction in wastewater treatment 1 plant and effect of various feature selection methods on machine learning algorithms performance
PublicationWastewater characteristics prediction in wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) is valuable and can reduce the number of sampling, energy, and cost. Feature Selection (FS) methods are used in the pre-processing section for enhancing the model performance. This study aims to evaluate the effect of seven different FS methods (filter, wrapper, and embedded methods) on enhancing the prediction accuracy for total nitrogen (TN) in the WWTP...
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Prediction of energy consumption and evaluation of affecting factors in a full-scale WWTP using a machine learning approach
PublicationTreatment of municipal wastewater to meet the stringent effluent quality standards is an energy-intensive process and the main contributor to the costs of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). Analysis and prediction of energy consumption (EC) are essential in designing and operating sustainable energy-saving WWTPs. In this study, the effect of wastewater, hydraulic, and climate-based parameters on the daily consumption of EC by...
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Effective Air Quality Prediction Using Reinforced Swarm Optimization and Bi-Directional Gated Recurrent Unit
PublicationIn the present scenario, air quality prediction (AQP) is a complex task due to high variability, volatility, and dynamic nature in space and time of particulates and pollutants. Recently, several nations have had poor air quality due to the high emission of particulate matter (PM2.5) that affects human health conditions, especially in urban areas. In this research, a new optimization-based regression model was implemented for effective...
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Sampling-based novel heterogeneous multi-layer stacking ensemble method for telecom customer churn prediction
PublicationIn recent times, customer churn has become one of the most significant issues in business-oriented sectors with telecommunication being no exception. Maintaining current customers is particularly valuable due to the high degree of rivalry among telecommunication companies and the costs of acquiring new ones. The early prediction of churned customers may help telecommunication companies to identify the causes of churn and design...
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Prediction of metal deformation due to line heating; an alternative method of mechanical bending, based on artificial neural network approach
PublicationLine heating is one of the alternative methods of forming metals and this kind of forming uses the heating torch as a source of heat input. During the process, many parameters are considered like the size of the substrate, thickness, cooling method, source power intensity, the travel speed of the power source, the sequence of heating, and so on. It is important to analyze the factors affecting the...
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Things You Might Not Know about the k-Nearest Neighbors Algorithm
PublicationRecommender Systems aim at suggesting potentially interesting items to a user. The most common kind of Recommender Systems is Collaborative Filtering which follows an intuition that users who liked the same things in the past, are more likely to be interested in the same things in the future. One of Collaborative Filtering methods is the k Nearest Neighbors algorithm which finds k users who are the most similar to an active user...
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Global Surrogate Modeling by Neural Network-Based Model Uncertainty
PublicationThis work proposes a novel adaptive global surrogate modeling algorithm which uses two neural networks, one for prediction and the other for the model uncertainty. Specifically, the algorithm proceeds in cycles and adaptively enhances the neural network-based surrogate model by selecting the next sampling points guided by an auxiliary neural network approximation of the spatial error. The proposed algorithm is tested numerically...
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Chained machine learning model for predicting load capacity and ductility of steel fiber–reinforced concrete beams
PublicationOne of the main issues associated with steel fiber–reinforced concrete (SFRC) beams is the ability to anticipate their flexural response. With a comprehensive grid search, several stacked models (i.e., chained, parallel) consisting of various machine learning (ML) algorithms and artificial neural networks (ANNs) were developed to predict the flexural response of SFRC beams. The flexural performance of SFRC beams under bending was...
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Formowanie napięć wyjściowych trójfazowego przekształtnika sieciowego
PublicationW artykule przedstawiono kompensację dwu zasadniczych zjawisk powodujących zniekształcenia prądów fazowych przekształtnika sieciowego. Pierwszym z nich są zniekształcenia napięcia sieci. W celu ich eliminacji zaproponowano uśrednianie za okres podstawowej harmonicznej uchybu regulatora napięcia obwodu pośredniczącego oraz predykcję napięcia sieci. Drugim natomiast są zniekształcenia napięć wyjściowych przekształtnika sieciowego....
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Computational Complexity and Its Influence on Predictive Capabilities of Machine Learning Models for Concrete Mix Design
PublicationThe design of concrete mixtures is crucial in concrete technology, aiming to produce concrete that meets specific quality and performance criteria. Modern standards require not only strength but also eco-friendliness and production efficiency. Based on the Three Equation Method, conventional mix design methods involve analytical and laboratory procedures but are insufficient for contemporary concrete technology, leading to overengineering...
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Quality of Analytical Results: Classifiying Errors and Estimating Measurement Uncertainty
PublicationThe most important parameter of each analytical result is its reliability. An analytical result is not a constant value; each result has two properties, error and uncertainty. The sources of both these parameters have to be known and their values determined (estimated). All analytical results are obtained by applying an appropriate measuring procedure. The need for reliable results requires application of reliable analytical procedures,...
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FFT analysis of temperature modulated semiconductor gas sensor response for the prediction of ammonia concentration under humidity interference
PublicationThe increasing environmental contamination forces the need to design reliable devices for detecting of the volatile compounds present in the air. For this purpose semiconductor gas sensors, which have been widely used for years, are often utilized. Although they have many advantages such as low price and quite long life time, they still lack of long term stability and selectivity. Namely, environmental conditions have significant...
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Predicting seismic response of SMRFs founded on different soil types using machine learning techniques
PublicationPredicting the Maximum Interstory Drift Ratio (M-IDR) of Steel Moment-Resisting Frames (SMRFs) is a useful tool for designers to approximately evaluate the vulnerability of SMRFs. This study aims to explore supervised Machine Learning (ML) algorithms to build a surrogate prediction model for SMRFs to reduce the need for complex modeling. For this purpose, twenty well-known ML algorithms implemented in Python software are trained...
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Analiza bibliometryczna w badaniach dotyczących prognozowania upadłości przedsiębiorstw w Polsce
PublicationCelem opracowania jest ukazanie obrazu piśmiennictwa poświęconego zagadnieniom prognozowania upadłości przedsiębiorstw w Polsce. Jako metodę badawczą zastosowano analizę bibliometryczną. Do analizy wykorzystano bazę Google Scholar oraz narzędzie Publish or Perish 7. Okresem badań objęto lata 1995– 2019. Jako frazy do wyszukiwania publikacji zastosowano: „prognozowanie upadłości”, „prognozowanie zagrożenia finansowego”, „systemy...
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The spontaneous electron emission and rotational predissociation lifetimes of the diatomic silver anion
Open Research DataThe process of a two-channel decay of the diatomic silver anion (Ag2-), namely the spontaneous electron ejection giving Ag2 + e- and the dissociation leading to Ag- + Ag is theoretically studied. The ground state potential energy curves (PECs) of the neutral silver dimer and anionic silver diatomic molecule are calculated using the single reference...
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The Use of Artificial Neural Networks and Decision Trees to Predict the Degree of Odor Nuisance of Post-Digestion Sludge in the Sewage Treatment Plant Process
PublicationThis paper presents the application of artificial neural networks and decision trees for the prediction of odor properties of post-fermentation sludge from a biological-mechanical wastewater treatment plant. The input parameters were concentrations of popular compounds present in the sludge, such as toluene, p-xylene, and p-cresol, and process parameters including the concentration of volatile fatty acids, pH, and alkalinity in...
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In silico modelling for predicting the cationic hydrophobicity and cytotoxicity of ionic liquids towards the Leukemia rat cell line, Vibrio fischeri and Scenedesmus vacuolatus based on molecular interaction potentials of ions
PublicationIn this study we present prediction models for estimating in silico the cationic hydrophobicity and the cytotoxicity (log [1/EC50]) of ionic liquids (ILs) towards the Leukemia rat cell line (IPC-81), the marine bacterium Vibrio fischeri and the limnic green algae Scenedesmus vacuolatus using linear free energy relationship (LFER) descriptors computed by COSMO calculations. The LFER descriptors used for the prediction model (i.e....
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Evaluation of Response Amplitude Operator of Ship Roll Motions Based on the Experiments in White Noise Waves
PublicationEvaluation of the response amplitude operator (RAO) function for ship wave frequency motions by means of scale model tests in regular waves is a standard procedure conducted by hydrodynamic model testing institutions. The resulting RAO function allows for evaluating sufficiently reliable seakeeping predictions for low to moderate sea states. However, for standard hull forms, correct prediction of roll motion in irregular wave (and...
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Study on the accuracy of axle load spectra used for pavement design
PublicationWeigh-in-Motion (WIM) systems are used in order to reduce the number of overloaded vehicles. Data collected from WIM provide characteristics of vehicle axle loads that are crucial for pavement design as well as for the development of pavement distress prediction models. The inaccuracy of WIM data lead to erroneous estimation of traffic loads and in consequence inaccurate prediction of pavement distress process. The objective of...
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Long-term hindcast simulation of sea level in the Baltic Sea
Open Research DataThe dataset contains the results of numerical modelling of sea level fluctuations over a period of 50 years (1958-2007) in the Baltic Sea. A long-term hindcast simulation was performed using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model PM3D (Kowalewski and Kowalewska-Kalkowska, 2017), a new version of the M3D model (Kowalewski, 1997). The hydrodynamic model...
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Polychlorinated Biphenyls (PCBs) and Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs): Sediments and Water Analysis
PublicationUnfavorable side effects of different forms of anthropogenic activities can be found anywhere in the world. One of the basic characteristics of pollutants entering marine and ocean waters is their spread and movement in the global ocean. A portion of the substances entering the marine environment is rapidly degraded by chemical processes occurring in the air, sediments, and water, thereby losing their toxic properties. The biggest...
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Installation of GNSS receivers on a mobile railway platform – methodology and measurement aspects
PublicationDetermining the course of a railway track axis using satellite methods relies on ensuring the precise assembly of GNSS receivers in dedicated measuring devices. Depending on the number of receivers, solutions that are based on placing the apparatus directly above the railway track axis (as well as in eccentric positions) are used to indirectly obtain data to form the basis of the desired results. This publication describes the...
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Application of a hybrid mechanistic/machine learning model for prediction of nitrous oxide (N2O) production in a nitrifying sequencing batch reactor
PublicationNitrous oxide (N2O) is a key parameter for evaluating the greenhouse gas emissions from wastewater treatment plants. In this study, a new method for predicting liquid N2O production during nitrification was developed based on a mechanistic model and machine learning (ML) algorithm. The mechanistic model was first used for simulation of two 15-day experimental trials in a nitrifying sequencing batch reactor. Then, model predictions...
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Application of gas chromatographic data and 2D molecular descriptors for accurate global mobility potential prediction
PublicationMobility is a key feature affecting the environmental fate, which is of particular importance in the case of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and emerging pollutants (EPs). In this study, the global mobility classification artificial neural networks-based models employing GC retention times (RT) and 2D molecular descriptors were constructed and validated. The high usability of RT was confirmed based on the feature selection...
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Long-term hindcast simulation of water temperature and salinity in the Baltic Sea
Open Research DataThe dataset contains the results of numerical modelling of water temperature and salinity over a period of 50 years (1958-2007) in the Baltic Sea. A long-term hindcast simulation was performed using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model PM3D (Kowalewski and Kowalewska-Kalkowska, 2017), a new version of the M3D model (Kowalewski, 1997). The hydrodynamic...
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Determination of Odour Interactions of Three-Component Gas Mixtures Using an Electronic Nose
PublicationThe paper presents an application of an electronic nose prototype comprised of six TGS-type sensors and one PID-type sensor to identify odour interaction phenomena in odorous three-component mixtures. The investigation encompassed eight odorous mixtures—toluene-acetone-triethylamine and formaldehyde-butyric acid-pinene — characterized by different odour intensity and hedonic tone. A principal component regression (PCR) calibration...
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Experimental investigations on adiabatic frictional pressure drops of R134a during flow in 5mm diameter channel
PublicationThe article presents detailed two-phase adiabatic pressure drops data for refrigerant R134a at a saturation pressure of 5.5 bar corresponding to the saturation temperature of 19.4 °C. Study cases have been set for a mass flux varying from 100 to 500 kg/m2 s. The frictional pressure drop was characterized for the refrigerant R134a, for vapor qualities ranging from 0 to 1. Long-time thermal stability of test facility allowed to gather...
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The Dynamics of Trade Relations between Ukraine and Romania: Modelling and Forecasting
PublicationThe article examines the monthly dynamics of exports, imports and balance of trade between Ukraine and Romania in the period from 2005 to 2021. Time series from 2015 to 2021 were used for modelling and forecasting (since the date the European Union–Ukraine Association Agreement took effect). Adequate models of the dynamics series of the Box-Jenkins methodology were built: additive models with seasonal component ARIMA (Autoregressive...
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Driver’s Condition Detection System Using Multimodal Imaging and Machine Learning Algorithms
PublicationTo this day, driver fatigue remains one of the most significant causes of road accidents. In this paper, a novel way of detecting and monitoring a driver’s physical state has been proposed. The goal of the system was to make use of multimodal imaging from RGB and thermal cameras working simultaneously to monitor the driver’s current condition. A custom dataset was created consisting of thermal and RGB video samples. Acquired data...
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Local variability in snow concentrations of chlorinated persistent organic pollutants as a source of large uncertainty in interpreting spatial patterns at all scales
PublicationSingle point sampling, a widespread practice in snow studies in remote areas, due to logistical constraints, can present an unquantified error to the final study results. The low concentrations of studied chemicals, such as chlorinated persistent organic pollutants, contribute to the uncertainty. We conducted a field experiment in the Arctic to estimate the error stemming from differences in the composition of snow at short distances...
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3D Monitoring - Identification of measurement problems at larger movements of the tracked points
PublicationAuthors identified the problems associated with the determination of the controlled points coordinates by use of automated Total Station placed behind transparent barrier. Important thing in the mentioned analysis was a large change of controlled points position and not stable Total Station’s stand (because of stand’s thermal drift). This two elements, combined with measurement made through glass plate determine the need for impact...
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Isotope-labeled substances in analysis of persistent organicpollutants in environmental samples
PublicationUltratrace analysis of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in environmental samples requires very sophisticated methods for both sample preparation and instrumental analysis. The complex matrix requires a multi-stage procedure. Each stage is a potential source of error, as a consequence of which the final result of analysis could be a source of misinformation rather than information. The individual stages and the procedure as...
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Machine-learning methods for estimating compressive strength of high-performance alkali-activated concrete
PublicationHigh-performance alkali-activated concrete (HP-AAC) is acknowledged as a cementless and environmentally friendly material. It has recently received a substantial amount of interest not only due to the potential it has for being used instead of ordinary concrete but also owing to the concerns associated with climate change, sustainability, reduction of CO2 emissions, and energy consumption. The characteristics and amounts of the...
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Simplified, multiregional fuzzy model of a nuclear power plant steam turbine
PublicationPower systems, including steam turbines and synchronous generators, are complex nonlinear systems with parameters varying over time. The paper presents the developed simplified, multiregional fuzzy model of the steam turbine of a nuclear power plant turbine generator set and compares the results with a full nonlinear model and commonly used linear input-output model of a steam turbine. The proposed model consist of series of linear...
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Adaptive Sampling for Non-intrusive Reduced Order Models Using Multi-Task Variance
PublicationNon-intrusive reduced order modeling methods (ROMs) have become increasingly popular for science and engineering applications such as predicting the field-based solutions for aerodynamic flows. A large sample size is, however, required to train the models for global accuracy. In this paper, a novel adaptive sampling strategy is introduced for these models that uses field-based uncertainty as a sampling metric. The strategy uses...
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Deep learning for ultra-fast and high precision screening of energy materials
PublicationSemiconductor materials for energy storage are the core and foundation of modern information society and play important roles in photovoltaic system, integrated circuit, spacecraft technology, lighting applications, and other fields. Unfortunately, due to the long experiment period and high calculation cost, the high-precision band gap (the basic characteristic parameter) of semiconductor is difficult to obtain, which hinders the...
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Comparison of different techniques for extracting Polychlorinated Biphenyls from bottom sediment samples using Isotope Dilution Mass Spectrometry
PublicationIn this work, problems that may occur during determination of trace levels of polychlorinated biphenyls in sediment samples are described. The main error sources are connected with extraction of analytes prior to final determination. During model studies, polychlorinated biphenyls have been extracted from sediment reference material (METRANAL 2) with the use of different solvents (dichloromethane, hexane, and toluene); the process...
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Autocorrelation function for the chosen effective potential of the diatomic silver anion
Open Research DataThe process of a two-channel decay of the diatomic silver anion (Ag2-), namely the spontaneous electron ejection giving Ag2 + e- and the dissociation leading to Ag- + Ag is theoretically studied. The ground state potential energy curves (PECs) of the neutral silver dimer and anionic silver diatomic molecule are calculated using the single reference...